Sorry that I missed the original to this. I said I "believe" not I "know" and I was speakin from personal experience because I am definitely no expert. I was given Allsup as an advocate through my long term disability company and they are one of the largest in the country. They are the ones who told me that while approval rates vary WILDLY, the norm is for the majority of the first time applications to be denied at the first level and it is a very high percentage. And it was in the 70s. I was also told by the SSA that the denial rate is quite high the first time around. Most of the websites linked in the sticky area also state that the denial percentages are quite high in the beginnnig. I would assume that if you have a slam dunk case it might be different. The ALJ I saw also stated that the denial rates were quite high the first several levels and told me that in MY case the initial denials were almost certainly because of my age and the fact that I was only 38 when this started.

So what I said was based on MY experience and the experience of one the largest disability advocates in the country. I dot think it was out of turn or out of place. I've read through DOZENS of this message boards and take most of it with a grain of salt, but the predominant experience is person after person being denied at the first and second levels and having to move on from there.

If you're lucky enough to get approved first time out...AWESOME! Otherwise it seems like you may have to move to NJ to get a favorable decision right away.