Originally Posted by fmichael

Dubious -

A couple of things. When I opened the "revised link" in your first post on the thread, this is what now comes up first:

March 18, 2010

RECRUITING PHYSICIANS TODAY

Recruiting Physicians Today is a free advertiser newsletter published by the Worldwide Advertising Sales and Marketing Department in the publishing division of the Massachusetts Medical Society. Each issue of the newsletter features research and content produced by physician recruiting firms and other independent groups involved in physician employment.

On December 17, 2009 The Medicus Firm, a national physician search firm based in Dallas and Atlanta, published the results of a survey they conducted with 1,000 physicians regarding their attitudes toward health reform. To read their survey results at The Medicus Firm website, click here.

The opinions expressed in the article linked to above represent those of The Medicus Firm only. That article does not represent the opinions of the New England Journal of Medicine or the Massachusetts Medical Society. [Emphasis added.]

It would appear that someone at the NEJM decided today that a qualification was in order concerning the source of the study.

Secondly, the detailed survey results and methods just became available today. (My email request yesterday went unanswered.) To reach it, you have to link to the article on the Medicus site at http://www.themedicusfirm.com/pages/...-health-reform and then click on the pop-up at the bottom of the page maked "For more information on the study’s methodology, click here."

Personally, I was most struck by the responses to one question, which was only hinted at in the article, where the latter reads, in pertinent part:

Skeptics may suspect that physicians exaggerate their intent to leave medicine due to health reform. Some experts point to the malpractice crisis of years ago, when many doctors also expressed a desire to leave medicine. Some did quit; many did not. However, health reform could be the proverbial “last straw” for physicians who are already demoralized, overloaded, and discouraged by multiple issues, combining to form the perfect storm of high malpractice insurance costs, decreasing reimbursements, increasing student loan debt, and more.

And the question?

How do you think the passage of health reform (with or without the public option) would impact your thoughts on recommending medical practice as a career to others, such as your kids, or a friend?

I would not recommend medicine as a career, regardless of health reform: 36%
I would recommend medicine as a career, regardless of health reform: 25%
I would recommend medicine as a career now, but not if health reform passes: 27%
I would not recommend medicine as a career now, but would recommend it if health reform passes: 12% [Emphasis added.]

Translation: over of third of the 53% of the polled doctors who chose to respond to the mailed questionnaire would not recommend others going into the profession, whether or not health care passes! And although an addtional 27% said they would recommend it now, but not if health care reform passed, 12% came out the other way entirely: they would be more likely to recommend it with health care in place. Thus the net effect of health care reform on the likelihood of recommending medicine to others was -15%.

Yet as to the effect of health care reform without the public option (the case at hand) there is the very curious reponse:

How do you think the passage of health reform WITHOUT a public option would affect your professional/practice plans, if at all?

No change: 70%
I would try to retire early: 22%
I would try to leave medical practice even if not near retirement age: 8%
I would go back into practicing medicine (if non-clinical or semi-retired now): 1%

And as to the effect on professional plans IF the public option was included, the results were even more dramatic:

No change: 53%
I would try to retire early: 24%
I would try to leave medical practice even if not near retirement age: 21%
I would go back into practicing medicine (if non-clinical or semi-retired now): 2%

Accordingly, even though an aggregate of only 15% of those responding said that the passage of health care reform would impact their recommendation of medicine to others as a career, between 31 and 47% (twice to three tines as many) of those polled indicated that the passage of health reform would have a negative impact on their own decision to stay in the profession.

What could that possibly mean? Or is if that old Hypocritic Oath again?

Mike