I can't give you any numbers, but there is a good possibility that you will need surgery on down the road. The problem is that when you have fusion or any disc surgery, the levels above and below the surgery site tend to fail because they've taken on more of the "load" and end up herniating because of it. Then you end up needing THEM repaired.
This happened to me after I had L4-5 repaired. No one told me about the chance of other levels going bad -- then L3-4 blew and I had to have THAT fixed. Now others have "gone" and I'm no longer "operable" due to osteoporosis, but I would not have let them touch me anyway! LOL I'm worse after surgery than I was before!
One thing you have to remember == don't expect to be pain-free after surgery. Surgery is ONLY to repair mechanical problems. It's not for pain. If you happen to get pain relief, that's good. But chances are you'll still have pain -- maybe better than before, maybe worse.
Best of luck and God bless. Hugs, Lee