the american association of neurology says that there are 4 in 100,000 pals in the U.S. U.S. population is 300 million. therefore according to this new estimate by AAN, there are 12,000 pals in the U.S.

for the last 6 years or more I have always read that there are 30,000 pals in the U.S. this figure is consistent on a procapita basis with the numbers stated by Canada, UK, France, Germany, etc.

What happend to 18,000 pals in the U.S.?

I think we know that they did not get well.

I live in Orange county, CA. the population of OC is almost exactly 3 million, or 1 percent of the U.S. population. if you believe in the 30,000 pals number for the U.S. there should be 300pals in OC. like wise if you accept the AAN estimate then there should be only 120 pals in OC.

Assuming an average lifespan of a pals to be 4 years, then there should be either 75 or 30 deaths per year due to als in OC.

For many years I have read the obituary page in the OC register looking for deaths due to als. I have seldom seen as many as 2 per month. Never have I seen anywhere near the 6 per month that would be required to justify the 75 annual death estimate.

So what number is correct? Based upon my crude analysis, I have to conclude that the actual prevalence for pals is probably closer to 12,000 than to the 30,000 number that is always published.

This issue points out how desperately we need a national registry. The first requirment of solving any problem is to establish how big it is.

I'm glad these people from AAN are not designing airplanes, bridges, or skyscrapers.